On October 15, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stood in Iwaki City, Fukushima Prefecture, to support candidates from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). With Japan’s House of Representatives election set for the 27th, a recent nationwide poll by Asahi Shimbun indicates uncertainty over whether the ruling coalition of the LDP and Komeito can retain a majority. Estimates suggest that the LDP may lose around 50 seats from its pre-election total of 247.
The House of Representatives has a total of 465 seats, comprising 289 from single-member districts and 176 from proportional representation. A majority requires 233 seats. For former Prime Ministers Shinzo Abe and Fumio Kishida, as well as current Prime Minister Ishiba, maintaining a majority is viewed as a crucial benchmark for success in this election.
In a poll conducted on October 19 and 20, involving approximately 360,000 voters, there remains doubt about the coalition’s ability to secure a majority. However, the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, is expected to make significant gains from its current 98 seats, and the prospects for the Democratic Party for the People and the Reiwa Shinsengumi appear positive as well.
The poll indicated that online surveys were used for district-level seats, while proportional representation seats were surveyed by phone. Notably, around 40% of voters had not yet firmly decided on their voting intentions, suggesting that the political landscape could still shift.
For the LDP’s district seats, projections indicate a significant drop from 182 seats to about 140, while the proportional representation expected decline is around 10 seats, falling below the previous tally of 65.
Since regaining power in the 2012 elections, the LDP has consistently held a majority. However, this election poses a serious challenge to that status.
October 20 marks the only Sunday during the campaign, prompting candidates from various parties to engage in street activities to rally voters.
Fumitake Fujita, Secretary-General of the Japan Innovation Party, delivered a speech in front of Nagoya Station, stating, “Due to scandals involving political donations and issues related to the Unification Church, public trust in politics has eroded. Simply criticizing the LDP will not change the political status quo; we will express our stance by calling for cuts to lawmakers’ salaries.”
Many small districts in Aichi Prefecture, where Nagoya is located, are anticipated to see fierce competition. Since the election announcement, leaders from various parties have visited the area to bolster support.
LDP leaders including Fumio Kishida, election strategy committee chairman Shinjiro Koizumi, and Seiko Noda arrived in Nagoya on the 18th. Kishida commented, “We will continue to work to restore public trust in politics and respond to the severe criticisms we face.” Koizumi added, “The issues surrounding political donations are responsibilities of the LDP leadership; we ask that opponents do not label our candidates with this.”
Noda Yoshihiko, representative of the Constitutional Democratic Party, also made an appearance at Kanayama Station in Nagoya, urging supporters, “A change in government means altering how political donations are utilized. A change in government represents the greatest political reform.”
Criticizing Ishiba’s dissolution of the House of Representatives, Noda argued that it was an “attempt to cover up the donation scandals and connections with the former Unification Church,” remarking that it “foolishly mocks voters.” He urged the public to firmly say “no” to the LDP in this election.
