Climate change campaigners are urging UK ministers to make significant commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions after the government’s independent Climate Change Committee weighed in with its recommendations.
In a letter to Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, the committee advised a target of an 81% reduction in the UK’s emissions compared to 1990 levels by 2035, excluding emissions from aviation and shipping. Miliband now faces a critical decision: whether to adopt this recommendation as he prepares the UK’s new international commitment under the Paris Agreement for an upcoming UN climate summit.
While an 81% cut aligns with the UK’s domestic carbon budgets for the 2030s, which aim for net zero by 2050, climate activists are pushing for more ambitious goals. Mike Childs, head of policy at Friends of the Earth, stated, “With climate change spiraling out of control, an 81% reduction should be seen as the absolute minimum. Increasing our ambition for deeper cuts would truly demonstrate leadership in the global fight against climate change.”
Catherine Pettengell, executive director of Climate Action Network UK, echoed this sentiment: “This should be the baseline, not the ceiling, for the UK’s climate ambitions. A fairer and more ambitious target could be within reach if the UK fully commits its economic and political resources.”
Reaching the new target won’t be easy. Analysis from Friends of the Earth indicates that the UK is currently far off from its goal of a 68% reduction in emissions by 2030, a target set by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson ahead of the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow in 2021.
Doug Parr, policy director at Greenpeace UK, emphasized the need for actionable plans: “True leadership requires the government to lay out concrete strategies to achieve its 2035 target.” He called on Labour to fulfill commitments, including stopping new oil and gas licenses, tripling renewable energy sources, and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, while also supporting workers transitioning from polluting industries.
Another pressing question for Miliband as he develops the UK’s internationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement is how to factor in emissions from international aviation and shipping. While these emissions are included in the UK’s domestic carbon budgets, they were not explicitly accounted for in the 2015 Paris Agreement, primarily due to the complexities of attributing them to specific countries. Jonathan Hood, UK sustainable shipping manager at Transport & Environment, argues that these emissions must be included: “Passing off responsibility for shipping emissions to the International Maritime Organisation while excluding them from the NDC is illogical, especially since the UK has already accepted legal responsibility for these emissions.”
Including aviation and shipping could effectively lower the headline NDC target to a 78% reduction by 2035 in line with the UK’s carbon budgets.
Though new NDCs aren’t due until February, Keir Starmer has promised an early announcement at the forthcoming COP29 in Azerbaijan, starting November 11.
At the recent UN General Assembly, the Prime Minister emphasized, “The UK will lead again in tackling climate change, both domestically and internationally. This is an existential threat happening right now, and we have reset Britain’s approach.”
Delivering an early NDC aims to motivate other major economies to follow suit. However, uncertainty looms over COP29, particularly with the upcoming US presidential election just days before the summit. Donald Trump has vowed to reverse many of the climate initiatives established under Joe Biden’s administration.
The UK has met its first three five-year carbon budgets under the Climate Change Act of 2008, but subsequent budgets pose greater challenges. The current carbon budget extends to 2027 and will be evaluated at the end of this parliament in 2029, with the fifth and sixth budgets calling for an emissions cut of 58% by 2032 and 78% by 2037, respectively.
In the realm of politics, Conservative leadership candidate Robert Jenrick has pledged to repeal the Climate Change Act, while his rival Kemi Badenoch also displays skepticism towards the UK’s net-zero goals.
A spokesperson for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero stated, “Britain is reasserting its climate leadership role because protecting current and future generations depends on making the UK a clean energy powerhouse and leading global climate action. We appreciate the expert advice from the Climate Change Committee and will carefully consider it before announcing an ambitious NDC target at COP29 aimed at limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees.”
